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Watchout for weekly analysis and forecasts on geopolitical affairs in Africa

MALI

Talk first, fight later

The grand plan for Mali’s army to wrest the northern provinces of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu from jihadist militias is due to swing into operation in the second half of the year. It has been held up by local and regional political disagreements, not least the opposition of Algeria, the biggest power in the region, whose land border with Mali runs for over 1,000 kilometres.

MALI

Django unchained

New Prime Minister Django Sissoko has started well, winning support for his government with his consensual style. A member of the nominated Transitional Assembly before his promotion, he was involved in efforts to launch a concertation nationale, a consultative conference bringing together a range of interest groups, civil society and political factions to draw up a political roadmap for Mali.

SOUTH AFRICA

The party isn’t over yet

A host of policy, factional and personal battles lie ahead for Jacob Zuma in 2013, despite his resounding re-election as President of the African National Congress at the Mangaung Conference last month. Party managers are already corralling the troops for next year’s national elections, which will be a critical test of the ANC’s standing after the crisis in the mining industry, unprecedented protests about poor services and still worsening unemployment.

SOUTH AFRICA

The economic fightback

Downgraded by the rating agencies and facing spiralling trade and budget deficits, South Africa needs its policy makers to make some tough decisions this year. Many will involve a messy confrontation with organised labour as deep cracks appear in President Jacob Zuma’s strategy of ‘Talk left, act right.’ The current account deficit may hit the tipping point of more than 6% in 2013 if foreign investment slows again and the trade deficit will widen further, since mineral exports have fallen due to the miners’ strikes. Yet by dint of geology, South Africa will continue to dominate the supply of many minerals.

ZIMBABWE

A test for the constitutions

After a great deal of brinkmanship, President Robert Mugabe conceded in mid-December that elections could not be held before June 2013. During the first part of the year, therefore, the Movement for Democratic Change and the Southern African Development Community will downplay their objections to the polls. Instead, they will concentrate on finalising the constitution, followed by the referendum on it. Simultaneously, the other objectives of the electoral road map should be addressed: drawing constituency boundaries, updating the electoral register, registration and more. Yet given the lethargy of the last two years, there is still plenty of room for slippage.

KENYA

A race to the bottom

Kenya’s 50th Independence celebrations at the end of the year will be shaped by the general elections in March, the first since the violently disputed 2007 polls. This will be a two-horse race, pitting Prime Minister Raila Oginga Odinga’s new Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) against a fast-rising Jubilee Alliance, led by International Criminal Court indictees Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and William Kipchirchir arap Ruto. Yet an estimated five million electors are believed to be undecided, most in politically marginal regions, and the appearance of several minority electoral coalitions will set up one of the most intriguing polls since Independence in 1963.

 

As multinational companies start bidding for gas assets, the governing CCM is desperate to halt the slide in its popularity

Tanzania’s next elections may be nearly three years away but they are already affecting national politics. Within the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi, tension will increase as the race to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete gathers momentum. The succession question will also shape the CCM’s relations with both the public and the opposition. The research project Afrobarometer recently found President Kikwete’s approval ratings falling from over 90% in 2008 to 70% in 2012 as general dissatisfaction grew with the government’s management of the economy....

 

NIGERIA

Early start for Jonathan

Despite corruption worries and a row with Obasanjo over the crisis in the north, President Jonathan prepares to stand in the 2015 elections

Election billboards in the business district of Abuja calling for President Goodluck Jonathan to stand for election again in 2015 opened the political season of the New Year. Jonathan’s Spokesman Reuben Abati improbably claimed that the President’s political team had no involvement. Insiders at the Presidency say that Jonathan is unlikely to announce his intentions until late 2014. They concede the probability is that he will seek the candidacy of the governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP), even if he has to face opposition from senior northern members....

S/Africa deploys troops to Central African Republic – Presidency

S/Africa deploys troops to Central African Republic – Presidency

The deployment of the personnel to the CAR is part of South Africa’s efforts to bring about peace and stability in the continent. The deployment period will be from 2 January to 31 March, Zuma’s office said.

“The members of the SANDF will assist with capacity building of the CAR defence force and will also assist CAR with the planning and implementation of the disarmament, demobilisation and re integration processes,” the Presidency said.

The situation is tense in CAR as the Seleka rebels, who accuse President Francois Bozize of reneging on the 2008 peace deal and cracking down on dissidents, launched an armed campaign on 10 December and have taken 10 northern and central towns in their advances.

The 2008 Libreville Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed by the government in Bangui and the three main rebel groups and helped bring an end to the conflict inside the country.

The South African government has urged the armed groups in CAR to immediately cease hostilities, withdraw from captured cities and cease any further advances towards Bangui.

As a member of the African Union, South Africa said it rejected any attempt to seize power by force, and therefore supported sanctions and other measures against the perpetrators of any unconstitutional change of government and their total isolation.

“We call on all parties to seek a peaceful solution by engaging constructively in political dialogue. We welcome the reaffirmation by CAR President Francois Bozize to work towards a negotiated solution to the current crisis in his country,” the Presidency said.

As the situation worsened in the CAR, Zuma earlier this year dispatched Defense and Military Veterans Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula to the country to assess the situation there.

Signature : APA
 
 

Ghana’s Mahama sworn in as president after vote row

AFP Pius Utomi Ekpei

AFP Pius Utomi Ekpei

Ghana’s John Dramani Mahama was sworn in as president on Monday at a ceremony attended by thousands in the capital but boycotted by the opposition, which has challenged the election results.

Mahama, who initially became head of state following the death of his predecessor John Atta Mills in July, pledged to build on the west African nation’s economic success in a speech after taking the oath.

The 54-year-old writer and Afrobeat music fan from Ghana’s north, who recently published a well-received memoir, pledged to improve the country’s infrastructure.

“We as a country have inherited a powerful legacy, and we are beneficiaries of a mighty history,” Mahama, dressed in a flowing white robe, told a crowd that included African heads of state, foreign dignitaries and average Ghanaians.

He added that “nevertheless, there’s still a tremendous amount of work that needs to be done…. Bridges, schools and hospitals must be built…. We must continue to invest in our agricultural sector and grow our economy.”

Observer groups hailed the December 7 polls as another successful election in a country viewed as a stable democracy in turbulent West Africa.

The party of main opposition candidate Nana Akufo-Addo has however alleged the vote was stolen and challenged the results in court.

Official results showed Mahama with 50.7 percent of the vote to Akufo-Addo’s 47.7 percent.

The stakes were especially high for the country of some 24 million people, with the newly elected president in charge of a growing stream of oil revenue.

West Africa’s second-largest economy and a longtime producer of gold and cocoa, Ghana started pumping oil in 2010 and now produces 105,000 barrels per day.

With oil flowing and Ghana’s economy growing at a rate of 14.3 percent in 2011, how Mahama invests the country’s boom money will be closely watched.

While it is considered a lower middle-income country by the World Bank, Ghana continues to struggle with infrastructure development.

Rural areas are plagued with potholed roads and most people rely on fresh water sold in sachets.

Though high-rise malls and apartments are being constructed across the capital Accra, Isaac Owusu-Mensah, a lecturer at the University of Ghana, said Mahama will be judged on how much he improves lives for Ghanaians in the far-flung reaches of the country.

“The primary issue that will guide everybody in the run-up to the next four years is how the economy is being managed,” Owusu-Mensah said. “If they don’t utilise (the oil revenue) quite well, there’s going to be a big problem.”

Besides managing the increasing revenue, Mahama must also be mindful of the court challenge to his election. Akufo-Addo, who lost to Mills by less than one percentage point in 2008, has yet to concede defeat.

He has filed a case with the Supreme Court alleging an array of voting improprieties and asking he be declared the winner. Hearings are expected to be held soon.

The opposition NPP boycotted the swearing-in, and some members of the party called on former president John Kufuor, a member of the party, to stay away from the ceremony.

A small crowd of opposition supporters were reported to have gone to his home early Monday in a bid to block him from attending.

Kufuor, widely respected for having stepped down after his two terms of office despite his party narrowly losing 2008 elections, defied such calls and attended the ceremony.

NPP spokesman Nana Akomea said after the inauguration that the party would push on with its court challenge.

“We are happy that the ceremony and the event came off peacefully,” he said.

“If the Supreme Court rules the results are not valid, whatever has happened today will have to be invalidated as well. In the absence of the Supreme Court ruling, what took place today was normal.”

Black Star Square, the venue for the inauguration, is richly symbolic as it commemorates Ghana’s status as the first sub-Saharan African nation to gain independence from colonial rule, in 1957.

South African President Jacob Zuma, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf were all at the ceremony. Some 12 African heads of state in all were said to be in attendance.

Signature : by Chris Stein
Bureau: ACCRA (AFP)