Cote D'Ivoire plunges into civil war

Forecast:  Botched international mediation process plunges country into renewed long civil war

In line with our December 2010 outlook on Cote d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa exporter has plunged into outright civil war – with no end in sight. Earlier military gains made by the pro-Ouattara rebels in Abidjan, the country’s commercial capital have been reversed in the last 48 hours by the pro-Gbagbo forces as the recently asylumed Army Chief of Staff, General Phillip Mangou has apparently returned back to the fold to lead the pro-Gbagbo forces against the rebels. While France and UN troops, have been engaged in combat in support of the rebels and the pro-Ouattara forces, both outside groups have been unwilling to take a frontal position as in the Libyan case. France holds the airport, but has not launched serious aerial attacks on the presidential palace. UN forces have also been drawn into the conflict on the rebel/pro-Ouattara side totally compromising their neutrality and ensuring the more attacks is likely on UN troops in the country. Also while the country’s Eurobonds have rallied in recent days on hopes of a quick end to the conflict, that is unlikely to happen even if internationally recognized President-elect Alassanne Ouattara takes office and Ggbabo is killed. The country will likely simmer with acts of violence and counter-violence until an inclusive government – representing both sides is formed. (Former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who helped broker some of the first peace agreements on Cote d’Ivoire over the weekend at a conference in Evanston, Illinois at the Kellogg School of Business buttressed this view – that the Ivoirian conflict cannot be resolved simply by a military victory of one faction over another